Week 4 · Adaptive Planning Program

17. The Theory of Change

30 min

By the end you'll be able to

Articulate the causal pathway from activities to outcomes
Identify and document underlying assumptions
Challenge assumptions using behavioral science principles

Before you draw the boxes and arrows of a Logic Model, you must articulate the narrative Theory of Change that explains why your activities will lead to results.

This lesson focuses on unearthing implicit assumptions, such as assuming people will read a brochure just because it is provided, and challenging them using behavioral science principles to ensure your causal pathway is sound.

Practice quiz

Question 1
According to the lesson, what should you articulate before drawing the boxes and arrows of a Logic Model?
- The funding budget.
- A narrative Theory of Change explaining why activities lead to results.
- The evaluation plan.
- The branding and communication strategy.
Question 2
Which of the following is an example of an ‘implicit assumption’ that the lesson warns can undermine a Theory of Change?
- Assuming staff will arrive on time for workshops.
- Assuming people will read a brochure simply because it is provided.
- Assuming the budget will be approved on schedule.
- Assuming evaluators will collect data accurately.
Reflection 3
What role does behavioral science play in stress-testing a Theory of Change?

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